According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the total export turnover of agriculture, forestry and fisheries of the whole country was estimated at 38.48 billion USD, in the first nine months of 2023, down 5.1% compared to the same period in 2022. The agricultural sector still maintains its target of a total export turnover of 54 billion USD, for the whole year 2023.

Rice samples are checked for exports at Thoai Son Rice Processing Factory under the Loc Troi Group Joint Stock Company. (Photo: HA AN)

It is predicted that the last months of the year will be an opportunity for many commodities to make breakthroughs to realise this goal. In particular, the fruit, vegetable and rice commodities are expected to achieve record export turnover, thanks to outstanding growth in the first nine months of the year. Meanwhile, the seafood industry is likely to recover strongly in the coming months.

Many commodities speed up

In 2023, the agricultural sector strives to achieve a GDP growth rate of 3.0-3.5% and about 54 billion USD of total agricultural, forestry and fishery export turnover. By the end of the third quarter of 2023, many agricultural commodities recorded higher growth rates over the same period and many others have the opportunity to accelerate rapidly in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, Phung Duc Tien

In the first nine months of 2023, export turnover of agricultural products reached 19.54 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%. In particular, the exports of fruits and vegetables reached 4.2 billion USD (up 71.8%), rice reached 3.66 billion USD (up 40.4%), cashew nuts reached 2.61 billion USD (up 14.3%) and coffee was 3.16 billion USD (up 1.9%). The export of livestock products was estimated at 369 million USD, up 26.4%. The average export price of some main agricultural products increased quite high, such as rice (553 USD per tonne, up 14%) and coffee (2,499 USD per tonne, up 9.9%).

China, the US and Japan continue to remain the three largest export markets of Vietnam. The country’s export value to China accounted for 22.1% (an increase of 13.8%), the US accounted for 20.7% (down 22.6%) and Japan accounted for 7.6% (down 7.7%).

The strong growth in exports of several industries has created motivation for domestic production. By the end of September 2023, the whole country had planted 6.855 million hectares of rice, down 0.6% over the same period last year, but the average yield reached 62.6 quintals per hectare, an increase of 1.6 quintals per hectare. Therefore, the harvest output still increased by 1.4%, reaching 33.6 million tonnes. Director of the Department of Crop Production Nguyen Nhu Cuong said that this is an abundant supply of rice commodities for Vietnam's export activities, while still ensuring domestic food security.

Since the end of July 2023, world rice export prices have continuously fluctuated at high levels, due to the goods being scarce, but Vietnam has still supplied enough rice for export contracts and consumption, as well as domestic reserves. The Department of Crop Production has been closely monitoring the weather situation to direct appropriate crop seasons and structure, as well as focusing on implementing the 2023 fall-winter crop production plan, to increase rice production nationwide.

For the seafood industry, the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) said that seafood export turnover in September 2023 was estimated to reach 862 million USD, equivalent to the same period in 2022 and increasing 16 million USD than last month. By the end of the third quarter of 2023, seafood exports reached 6.64 billion USD, down 21.7% compared to the same period in 2022. Also in September, shrimp and tuna exports both reached the same level as in September 2022. Notably, the recovery of tra fish products increased by 9% over the same period last year.

According to VASEP, seafood exports in recent months have shown signs of recovery compared to previous months. In particular, the exports to the main markets of the US and China have recorded positive growth in the past two months. Some markets such as Japan, Australia, and Canada are increasing shrimp imports from Vietnam. The exports of tra fish are also tending to gradually recover in the markets of China, Mexico, Brazil, the Netherlands, the UK and the US.By the end of September 2023, seafood exports to the top three major markets of the US, China and Japan have all surpassed the mark of 1 billion USD, to reach 1.2 billion USD, 1.15 billion USD and nearly 1.1 billion USD, respectively.

The prosperity of the seafood export market has also created motivation for new farmers. As a result, sea exploitation remains stable due to favourable weather. Seafood output in the first nine months of 2023 reached nearly 6.797 million tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%.

Workers in Vina T&T Group Company are preparing to pack grapefruits for export. (Photo: THUY AN)

Taking advantage of market opportunities during the last months

It is forecasted that in the last months of the year, the world agricultural product market will continue to recover and grow strongly, creating opportunities for many industries to increase export turnover. The most notable is the fruit and vegetable industry. According to the Import-Export Department under the Ministry of Industry and Trade, fruit and vegetable exports recorded high growth rates in most commodity categories, in the first nine months of 2023. It is expected that in the whole year, fruit and vegetable export turnover may exceed 5 billion USD. Typically, the export value of durian increased sharply and was continuously recorded at a high level.

In the first eight months of 2023 alone, durian export value reached 1.28 billion USD, an increase of 708.4% over the same period in 2022. China is the main durian import market of Vietnam. General Secretary of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetables Association Dang Phuc Nguyen said that under market signals, durian export prices and output will continue to increase in the near future because China's consumer demand is still forecast to remain at a sharp increase.

However, the problem for Vietnamese durians is to develop appropriate quality standards in the current context. In addition to fresh products, the industry also needs to develop more processed products while strictly planning the development of durian growing areas across the country, to stabilise productivity and quality, as well as meet the regulations of export markets.

Along with vegetables, rice and seafood, coffee also has many growth opportunities in the last months of the year. The VASEP forecasts that seafood exports in 2023 will reach a turnover of about 9.2-9.3 billion USD. Seafood businesses are also trying to ensure supply to welcome the "wave" of seafood consumption returning at the end of this year, after some world economies have recovered and seafood inventories of many markets have also been depleted, pushing import demand up.

Meanwhile, Vietnam's export rice prices continue to remain high, which is also a strong push for this industry to rapidly increase export turnover, with a new target of more than 4 billion USD for the whole year 2023. At the end of October 2023, implementing the National Programme on Trade Promotion, the Department of Trade Promotion, in coordination with the Import-Export Department under the Ministry of Industry and Trade, will organise a trade delegation for rice products in China to learn about the distribution, retails and consumption of Chinese consumers, thereby building a direct penetration method and increasing market share in this potential market.

Regarding international cooperation and market development to promote general consumption of agricultural products, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Phung Duc Tien noted that in the near future, the ministry will continue to handle market issues to create favourable conditions for agricultural exports, especially to the markets of China, the US and the EU. In particular, it is crucial to take advantage of free trade agreements to promote the export of key agricultural, forestry and fishery products, as well as support businesses in signing new export orders.