VOV.VN - Vietnam's coffee exports this year are forecast to remain positive and are likely to reach turnover of US$4 billion.

However, according to statistics released at the end of the trading week of October 2 to October 8 by the Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam (MXV), the market still paid close attention to coffee prices as this commodity continued to weaken.

In particular, the price of Robusta coffee dropped by 4.18% and Arabica price decreased slightly, with 0.07% compared to the reference.

Brazil's promotion of exports, along with the nation’s harvest of new crops, is a key factor causing pressure on prices.

Farmers in Vietnam have already begun harvesting early ripe coffee for the 2023 to 2024 crop year. This can help increase supply for export activities in the near future.

This year's coffee output is estimated to decrease by 10% to 15% due to unfavourable weather. However, coffee exports from now until the end of the year are still showing positive signs as demand remains higher than supply.

Although high turnover is a good result for the coffee industry, MXV analyses and looks back at export activities over the past two years, with the ability to maintain high export value in the long term being something uncertain.

The main factor helping coffee export turnover exceed US$4 billion this year can be put down to rising prices in the context of supply shortage.

Earlier in 2022, for the first time the country earned more than US$4 billion from coffee export activities thanks to the third highest amount of coffee exported in 10 years, with 1.78 million tonnes.

Because of boosting the amount of coffee exported in 2022, export reserves for this year are low, in addition to a 10% to 15% decrease in output in the 2022 to 2023 crop year.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the amount of coffee exported this year will reach roughly 1.72 million tonnes, fetching US$4.2 billion.